Moving Before Spring MAKES SENSE! Spring is usually the busiest season in the housing market. Many buyers wait until then to make their move, believing it’s the best time to find a home. However, that isn’t always the case when you factor in the competition you could face with other buyers at that time of year. If you’re ready to buy a home, here’s why it makes sense to move before the spring market picks up. Spring Should Bring a Wave of Buyers to the Market In most years, the housing market goes through predictable seasonal trends in activity. Winter is typically a quiet point in the year, while spring sees a surge of buyers begin their search. And experts project that this year will be no exception.   Right now, buyer demand is low due to a combination of normal seasonal trends and a reaction to last year’s rise in mortgage rates. But rates have started to come down since last November, which has more and more potential buyers planning to jump into the market. That means right now is a sweet spot if you’re in a good position to buy, before more buyers reappear. Affordability is beginning to improve, but demand is still low — for now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), shares: “. . . expect sales to pick up again soon since mortgage rates have markedly declined after peaking late last year.” If you’re ready to buy a home, right now is the best time to do so before your competition grows and more buyers enter the market. Today’s Sellers Are Motivated Low demand from buyers often means sellers are more motivated to work with you, and that can set you up to buy a home on your terms. In fact, sellers have been more willing to negotiate this winter because there are fewer buyers in the market. According to a recent article from Forbes: “. . . sellers gave concessions to buyers in 41.9% of home sales in the fourth quarter of last year.” But keep in mind, the advantages buyers have this winter won’t last forever. The competition you face could be greater if you wait until spring to make a move, and increased buyer demand means sellers will have less motivation to negotiate with you. Be sure to work with a trusted real estate professional to learn what you can expect in your local market right now.   Bottom Line If you’re in a good position to make a move, it may make sense to move before spring. Working with your team of expert real estate advisors is the best way to learn about the current market and what it means for you. Let’s connect today to determine the best plan to achieve your homebuying goals.

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  There are many reasons my clients have decided to make a move through the years.     The most common reasons are: Their current home is too small They want to be closer to friends and family They are tired of sitting in traffic and want to be closer to kids' school, activities, work, and recreation. They've experienced career advancements and can now afford their dream home. Change in relationships: Newly married or blended family, empty nest, death in the family. New Job or transfer And Many More! Text me today to list your home for sale! 

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Moving Boxes Kit

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Confused About What’s Going on in the Housing Market? Lean on a Professional. If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you probably want to know what’s really happening with home prices, mortgage rates, housing supply, and more. That’s not an easy task considering how sensationalized headlines are today. Jay Thompson, Real Estate Industry Consultant, explains: “Housing market headlines are everywhere. Many are quite sensational, ending with exclamation points or predicting impending doom for the industry. Clickbait, the sensationalizing of headlines and content, has been an issue since the dawn of the internet, and housing news is not immune to it.” Unfortunately, when information in the media isn’t clear, it can generate a lot of fear and uncertainty in the market. As Jason Lewris, Cofounder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says: “In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.” But it doesn’t have to be that way. Buying or selling a home is a big decision, and it should be one you feel confident making. To help you separate fact from fiction and get the answers you need, lean on a local real estate advisor. A trusted expert is your best resource to understand what’s happening at the national and local levels. They’ll be able to debunk the headlines using data you can trust. And using their in-depth knowledge of the industry, they’ll provide context so you know how current trends compare to the normal ebbs and flows in the industry, historical data and more. Then, to make sure you have the full picture, they’ll tell you if your local area is following the national trend or if they’re seeing something different in your market. Together, you’ll use all of that information to make the best possible decision for you. After all, making a move is a potentially life-changing milestone. It should be something you feel ready for and excited about. And that’s where an agent comes in. Bottom Line If you have questions about the headlines or what’s happening in the housing market today, let’s connect so you have expert insights and advice on your side.

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Fall Housing Market Predictions The housing market is rapidly changing from the peak frenzy it saw over the past two years. That means you probably have questions about what your best move is if you’re thinking of buying or selling this fall. To help you make a confident decision, lean on the professionals for insights. Here are a few things experts are saying about the fall housing market. Expert Quotes for Fall Homebuyers A recent article from realtor.com: “This fall, a more moderate pace of home selling, more listings to choose from, and softening price growth will provide some breathing room for buyers searching for a home during what is typically the best time to buy a home.” Michael Lane, VP and General Manager, ShowingTime: “Buyers will continue to see less competition for homes and have more time to tour homes they like and consider their options.”  Expert Quotes for Fall Sellers Selma Hepp, Interim Lead of the Office of the Chief Economist, CoreLogic: “. . . record equity continues to provide fuel for housing demand, particularly if households are relocating to more affordable areas.” Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, realtor.com: “For homeowners deciding whether to make a move this year, remember that listing prices – while lower than a few months ago – remain higher than in prior years, so you’re still likely to find opportunities to cash-in on record-high levels of equity, particularly if you’ve owned your home for a longer period of time.” Bottom Line Mortgage rates, home prices, and the supply of homes for sale are top of mind for buyers and sellers today. And if you want the latest information for our area, let’s connect today.

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Last year, the Federal Reserve took action to try to bring down inflation. In response to those efforts, mortgage rates jumped up rapidly from the record lows we saw in 2021, peaking at just over 7% last October. Hopeful buyers experienced a hit to their purchasing power as a result, and some decided to press pause on their plans.Today, the rate of inflation is starting to drop. And as a result, mortgage rates have dipped below last year’s peak. Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, shares:“While mortgage market activity has significantly shrunk over the last year, inflationary pressures are easing and should lead to lower mortgage rates in 2023.”That’s potentially great news if you’re a buyer aiming to jump back into the housing market. Any drop in mortgage rates helps boost your purchasing power by bringing down your expected monthly mortgage payment. This means the lower mortgage rates experts forecast this year could be just what you need to reignite your homebuying goals.While this opens up a window of opportunity for you, remember: you shouldn’t expect rates to drop back down to record lows like we saw in 2021. Experts agree that’s not the range buyers should bank on. Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains:“I think we could be surprised at how much mortgage rates pull back this year. But we’re not going back to 3 percent anytime soon, because inflation is not going back to 2 percent anytime soon.”It’s important to have a realistic vision for what you can expect this year, and that’s where the advice of expert real estate advisors is critical. You may be surprised by the impact even a mild drop in mortgage rates has on your budget. If you’re ready to buy a home now, today’s market presents the opportunity to get a more affordable mortgage rate, find your dream home, and face less competition from other buyers.Bottom LineThe recent pullback in mortgage rates is great news – but if you’re ready to buy now, holding out for 3% is a mistake. Work with a local lender to learn how today’s rates impact your goals, and let’s connect to explore your options in our area.

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What Are Your Goals in the Housing Market This Year? If buying or selling a home is part of your dreams for 2023, it’s essential for you to understand today’s housing market, define your goals, and work with industry experts to bring your homeownership vision for the new year into focus. In the last year, high inflation had a big impact on the economy, the housing market, and likely on your wallet too. That’s why it’s critical to have a clear understanding of not just the market today, but also what you want out of it when you buy or sell a home. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, explains: “The key to making a good decision in this challenging housing market is to be laser focused on what you need now and in the years ahead, so that you can stay in your home long enough that buying is a sound financial decision.” Here are a few questions you can start thinking through as you fine tune your goals for 2023. 1. What’s Motivating You? You’re dreaming about making a move for a reason – what is it? No matter what’s happening in the market, there are still many compelling reasons to buy a home today. Your needs may have changed in a way your current house can’t address, or you could be ready to step into homeownership for the first time and have a space that’s truly your own. Use what’s motivating you as a guidepost in partnership with an expert advisor to help make sure your move will give you a lasting sense of accomplishment. 2. What Does Your Next Home Look Like? You know you want to move, but how would you describe your dream home? The available supply of homes for sale has grown, and that could mean more options to choose from when you buy. Just be sure to keep your budget in mind and work with a trusted real estate professional to balance your wants and needs. The better you understand what’s essential and where you can be flexible, the easier it can be to find the home that’s right for you. 3. How Ready Are You To Buy? Getting clear on your budget and savings is essential before you get too far into the process. Working with a local agent and a lender early is the best way to make sure you’re in a good position to buy. This could include planning how much to save for a down payment, getting pre-approved for a home loan, and assessing your current home equity if your move involves selling your existing house. A Professional Will Guide You Through Every Step of the Process Buying or selling a home is a big process that takes expertise to navigate. If that feels a bit overwhelming, you aren’t alone. According to a recent Harris Poll survey, one in five respondents see a lack of information or knowledge about the homebuying process as a barrier from owning a home. Don’t let uncertainty hold you back from your goals this year. A trusted expert can bridge that gap and give you the best advice and information about today’s market. Bottom Line Let’s connect to plan how your dreams for 2023 can become a reality.

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What’s Really Happening with Home Prices?   Some Highlights If you’re thinking about selling your house, recent headlines about home prices falling month-over-month may have you second guessing your decision—but perspective matters. While home prices are down slightly month-over-month in some markets, home values are still up almost 10% nationally on a year-over-year basis. A nearly 10% gain is still dramatic compared to the more normal level of appreciation, which is 3-4%. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.

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Have Home Values Hit Bottom? Whether you’re already a homeowner or you’re looking to become one, the recent headlines about home prices may leave you with more questions than answers. News stories are talking about home prices falling, and that’s raising concerns about a repeat of what happened to prices in the crash in 2008.     One of the questions that’s on many minds, based on those headlines, is: how much will home prices decline? But what you may not realize is expert forecasters aren’t calling for a free fall in prices. In fact, if you look at the latest data, there’s a case to be made that the biggest portion of month-over-month price depreciation nationally may already behind us – and even those numbers weren’t significant declines on the national level. Instead of how far will they drop, the question becomes: have home values hit bottom?   Let’s take a look at the latest data from several reputable industry sources (see chart below):     The chart above provides a look at the most recent reports from Case-Shiller, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Black Knight, and CoreLogic. It shows how, on a national scale, home values have changed month-over-month since January 2022. November and December numbers have yet to come out.   Let’s focus in on what the red numbers tell us. The red numbers are the change in home values over the last four months that have been published. And if we isolate the last four months, what the data shows is, in each case, home price depreciation peaked in August.   While that doesn’t guarantee home price depreciation has hit bottom, it confirms prices aren’t in a free fall, and it may be an early signal that the worst is already behind us. As the numbers for November and December are released, data will be able to further validate this national trend. Bottom Line Home prices month-over-month have depreciated for the past four months on record, but there’s a strong case to be made that the worst may be behind us. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our local market, let’s connect.

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What Past Recessions Actually Tell Us About the Housing Market It doesn’t matter if you’re someone who closely follows the economy or not, chances are you’ve heard whispers of an upcoming recession. Economic conditions are determined by a broad range of factors, so rather than explaining them each in depth, let’s lean on the experts and what history tells us to see what could lie ahead. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says: “Two-in-three economists are forecasting a recession in 2023 . . .” As talk about a potential recession grows, you may be wondering what a recession could mean for the housing market. Here’s a look at the historical data to show what happened in real estate during previous recessions to help prove why you shouldn’t be afraid of what a recession could mean for the housing market today. A Recession Doesn’t Mean Falling Home Prices To show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, it helps to turn to historical data. As the graph below illustrates, looking at recessions going all the way back to 1980, home prices appreciated in four of the last six of them. So historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will always fall.     Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 (the larger of the two red bars in the graph above) and think another recession would be a repeat of what happened to housing then. But today’s housing market isn’t about to crash because the fundamentals of the market are different than they were in 2008. According to experts, home prices will vary by market and may go up or down depending on the local area. But the average of their 2023 forecasts shows prices will net neutral nationwide, not fall drastically like they did in 2008. A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates Research also helps paint the picture of how a recession could impact the cost of financing a home. As the graph below shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased.     Fortune explains mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown: “Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.” In 2023, market experts say mortgage rates will likely stabilize below the peak we saw last year. That’s because mortgage rates tend to respond to inflation. And early signs show inflation is starting to cool. If inflation continues to ease, rates may fall a bit more, but the days of 3% are likely behind us.   The big takeaway is you don’t need to fear the word recession when it comes to housing. In fact, experts say a recession would be mild and housing would play a key role in a quick economic rebound. As the 2022 CEO Outlook from KPMG, says: “Global CEOs see a ‘mild and short’ recession, yet optimistic about global economy over 3-year horizon . . .    More than 8 out of 10 anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, with more than half expecting it to be mild and short.” Bottom Line  While history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from the past. According to historical data, in most recessions, home values have appreciated and mortgage rates have declined.   If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home this year, let’s connect so you have expert advice on what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for your homeownership goals.

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Then & Now How 15 Years Can Change Everything There’s no doubt today’s housing market is very different than the frenzied one from the past couple of years. In the second half of 2022, there was a dramatic shift in real estate, and it caused many people to make comparisons to the 2008 housing crisis. While there may be a few similarities, when looking at key variables now compared to the last housing cycle, there are significant differences. In the latest Real Estate Forecast Summit, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), drew the comparisons below between today’s housing market and the previous cycle:Looking at the facts, it’s clear: today is very different than the housing market of 15 years ago. There’s Opportunity in Real Estate Today And in today’s market, with inventory rising and less competition from other buyers, there’s opportunity right now. According to David Stevens, former Assistant Secretary of Housing: “So be advised…this may be the one and only window for the next few years to get into a buyer’s market. And remember…as the Federal Reserve data shows…home prices only go up and always recover from recessions no matter how mild or severe. Long term homeowners should view this market…right now…as a unique buying opportunity.” Bottom Line Today’s housing market is nothing like the real estate market 15 years ago. If you’re a buyer right now, this may be the chance you’ve been waiting for.

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What To Expect From the Housing Market in 2023 The 2022 housing market has been defined by two key things: inflation and rapidly rising mortgage rates. And in many ways, it’s put the market into a reset position. As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) made moves this year to try to lower inflation, mortgage rates more than doubled – something that’s never happened before in a calendar year. This had a cascading impact on buyer activity, the balance between supply and demand, and ultimately home prices. And as all those things changed, some buyers and sellers put their plans on hold and decided to wait until the market felt a bit more predictable. But what does that mean for next year? What everyone really wants is more stability in the market in 2023. For that to happen we’ll need to see the Fed bring inflation down even more and keep it there. Here’s what housing market experts say we can expect next year. What’s Ahead for Mortgage Rates in 2023? Moving forward, experts agree it’s still going to be all about inflation. If inflation is high, mortgage rates will be as well. But if inflation continues to fall, mortgage rates will likely respond. While there may be early signs inflation is easing as we round out this year, we’re not out of the woods just yet. Inflation is still something to watch in 2023. Right now, experts are factoring all of this into their mortgage rate forecasts for next year. And if we average those forecasts together, experts say we can expect rates to stabilize a bit more in 2023. Whether that’s between 5.5% and 6.5%, it’s hard for experts to say exactly where they’ll land. But based on the average of their projections, a more predictable rate is likely ahead (see chart below): That means, we’ll start the year out about where we are right now. But we could see rates tick down if inflation continues to drop. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains: “. . . mortgage rates could pull back meaningfully next year if inflation pressures ease.” In the meantime, expect some volatility as rates will likely fluctuate in the weeks ahead. If we see inflation come back under control, that would be good news for the housing market. What Will Happen to Home Prices Next Year? Homes prices will always be defined by supply and demand. The more buyers and fewer homes there are on the market, the more home prices will rise. And that’s exactly what we saw during the pandemic. But this year, things changed. We’ve seen home prices moderate and housing supply grow as buyer demand pulled back due to higher mortgage rates. The level of moderation has varied by local area – with the biggest changes happening in overheated markets. But do experts think that will continue? The graph below shows the latest home price forecasts for 2023. As the different colored bars indicate, some experts are saying home prices will appreciate next year, and others are saying home prices will come down. But again, if we take the average of all the forecasts (shown in green), we can get a feel for what 2023 may hold. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. That means nationally, we’ll likely see relatively flat or neutral appreciation in 2023. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally . . . Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines.” Bottom Line The 2023 housing market is going to be defined by mortgage rates, and rates will be determined by what happens with inflation. The best way to keep a pulse on what experts are projecting for next year is to lean on a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect.

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  Some Highlights From home sales to prices, the 2023 housing market will be defined by mortgage rates. And where rates go depends on what happens with inflation. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home this year, let’s connect so you understand where the housing market is headed in 2023. Sources: realtor.com Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Zelman & Associates Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate

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What’s Going on with Home Prices? Ask a Professional. If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home this year, you may have questions about what’s happening with home prices today as the market cools. In the simplest sense, nationally, experts don’t expect prices to come crashing down, but the level of home price moderation will depend on factors like supply and demand in each local market. That means, moving forward, home price appreciation will continue to vary by location, with more significant changes happening in overheated areas. Here’s a quick snapshot of what the experts are saying: Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, says: “The major question on the minds of homeowners and aspiring buyers alike is what will happen to home prices. . . Soaring prices were propelled by all-time low mortgage rates which are a thing of the past. As a result, home price growth is expected to continue slowing, dipping below its pre-pandemic average to 5.4% for 2023, as a whole.” Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says: “House price appreciation has slowed in all 50 markets we track, but the deceleration is generally more dramatic in areas that experienced the strongest peak appreciation rates.” Taylor Marr, Deputy Chief Economist at Redfin, says: “For those bearish folks eagerly awaiting the home price crash, you’ll have to keep waiting. As much as demand is pulling back supply is as well reducing downward pressure on prices in the short run.” John Paulson, Founder of Paulson & Co., says: “It’s true – housing may be a little frothy. So housing prices may come down or they may plateau . . .” What Does This Mean for You? The best way to get the answers you need is to lean on a local real estate advisor. They’ll be able to explain the latest trends in your specific market so you can make a confident and informed decision on your next step toward buying or selling a home. Bottom Line If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices today, let’s connect so you have the latest on our local market.

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Why There Won’t Be a Flood of Foreclosures Coming to the Housing Market With the rapid shift that’s happened in the housing market this year, some people are raising concerns that we’re destined for a repeat of the crash we saw in 2008. But in truth, there are many key differences between what’s happening today and the bubble in the early 2000s. One of the reasons this isn’t like the last time is the number of foreclosures in the market is much lower now. Here’s a look at why there won’t be a wave of foreclosures flooding the market. Not as Many Homeowners Are in Trouble This Time After the last housing crash, over nine million households lost their homes due to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they gave it back to the bank. This was, in large part, because of more relaxed lending standards where people could take out mortgages they ultimately couldn’t afford. Those lending practices led to a wave of distressed properties which made their way into the market and caused home values to plummet. But today, revised lending standards have led to more qualified buyers. As a result, there are fewer homeowners who are behind on their mortgages. As Marina Walsh, Vice President of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says: “For the second quarter in a row, the mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979 – declining to 3.45%. Foreclosure starts and loans in the process of foreclosure also dropped in the third quarter to levels further below their historical averages.” There Have Been Fewer Foreclosures over the Last Two Years While you may have seen recent stories about the number of foreclosures rising today, context is important. During the pandemic, many homeowners were able to pause their mortgage payments using the forbearance program. The program gave homeowners facing difficulties extra time to get their finances in order and, in many cases, work out a plan with their lender. With that program, many were concerned it would result in a wave of foreclosures coming to the market. That fear didn’t materialize. Data from the New York Fed shows there are still fewer foreclosures happening today than before the pandemic (see graph below): That means, while there are more foreclosures now compared to last year (when foreclosures were paused), the number is still well below what the housing market has seen in a more typical year, like 2017-2019. And most importantly, the number we’re seeing now is still far below the number we saw during the market crash (shown in the red bars in the graph). The big takeaway? Don’t let a headline in the news mislead you. While foreclosures are up year-over-year, historical context is essential to understanding the full picture. Most Homeowners Have More Than Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes Many homeowners today have enough equity to sell their homes instead of facing foreclosure. Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. And if they’ve stayed in their homes even longer, they may have even more equity than they realize. As Ksenia Potapov, Economist at First American, says: “Homeowners have very high levels of tappable home equity today, providing a cushion to withstand potential price declines, but also preventing housing distress from turning into a foreclosure. . . the result will likely be more of a foreclosure ‘trickle’ than a ‘tsunami.’” A recent report from ATTOM Data explains it by going even deeper into the numbers: “Only about 214,800 homeowners were facing possible foreclosure in the second quarter of 2022, or just four-tenths of one percent of the 58.2 million outstanding mortgages in the U.S. Of those facing foreclosure, about 195,400, or 91 percent, had at least some equity built up in their homes.” Bottom Line If you see headlines about the increasing number of foreclosures today, remember context is important. While it’s true the number of foreclosures is higher now than it was last year, foreclosures are still well below pre-pandemic years. If you have questions, let’s connect.

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Key Factors Affecting Home Affordability Today Every time there’s a news segment about the housing market, we hear about the affordability challenges buyers are facing today. Those headlines are focused on how much mortgage rates have climbed this year. And while it’s true rates have risen dramatically, it’s important to remember they aren’t the only factor in the affordability equation. Here are three measures used to establish home affordability: home prices, mortgage rates, and wages. Let’s look closely at each one. 1. Mortgage Rates This is the factor most people are focused on when they talk about homebuying conditions today. So far, current rates are almost four full percentage points higher than they were at the beginning of the year. As Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explains: “U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates have increased 3.83 percentage points since the end of last year. That’s the biggest year-to-date increase in rates in over 50 years.” That increase in mortgage rates is impacting how much it costs to finance a home purchase, creating a challenge for many buyers that’s pricing some out of the market. While the current global uncertainty makes it difficult to project where mortgage rates will go in the future, experts do say that rates will likely remain high as long as inflation does. 2. Home Prices The second factor at play is home prices. Home prices have made headlines over the past few years because they skyrocketed during the pandemic. Now, the most recent Home Price Index from S&P Case-Shiller shows home values continued to decelerate for a fifth consecutive month (shown in green in the graph below): This deceleration is happening because higher mortgage rates are moderating demand, and as a result, easing the buyer competition and bidding wars that previously drove prices up. What’s worth noting though, is how much higher home prices still are than they were before the pandemic (shown in blue in the graph above). Even now, we have a long way to go to get to more normal levels of home price appreciation, which is historically closer to 4%. When both mortgage rates and home prices are high, affordability and your purchasing power become a greater challenge. But while prices are still elevated in many markets, some areas are seeing slight declines. It all depends on your local market. For insight into what’s happening in your area, reach out to a trusted real estate professional. 3. Wages The one big, positive component in the affordability equation is the increase in American wages. The graph below uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show how wages have grown over time. This year is no exception. As the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports: “Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 120.2 million full-time wage and salary workers were $1,070 in the third quarter of 2022 (not seasonally adjusted), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported…This was 6.9 percent higher than a year earlier…” So, when you think about affordability, remember the full picture includes more than just mortgage rates. Home prices and wages need to be factored in as well. Because wages have been rising, they’re a big reason why serious buyers are still purchasing homes this year. If you have questions or want to learn more, reach out to a trusted advisor who can explain how all of these variables work together and what’s happening in your area. As Leslie Rouda Smith, President of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “Buying or selling a home involves a series of requirements and variables, and it’s important to have someone in your corner from start to finish to make the process as smooth as possible… and objectivity to deliver trusted expertise to consumers in every U.S. ZIP code.” Bottom Line To learn more, let’s connect today and make sure you have a trusted lender so you’re able to make an informed decision if you’re planning to buy or sell a home right now.

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3 Graphs Showing Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Like 2008 With all the headlines and talk in the media about the shift in the housing market, you might be thinking this is a housing bubble. It’s only natural for those thoughts to creep in that make you think it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. But the good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time. There’s Still a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Supply has increased since the start of this year, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to almost 15 years of underbuilding homes. The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.2-months’ supply at the current sales pace, which is significantly lower than the last time. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did last time, even though some overheated markets may experience slight declines. Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed Back Then During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home. Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices. Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies. The graph below uses Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to help tell this story. In that index, the higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage. The lower the number, the harder it is. In the latest report, the index fell by 5.4%, indicating standards are tightening. This graph also shows just how different things are today compared to the spike in credit availability leading up to the crash. Tighter lending standards over the past 14 years have helped prevent a scenario that would lead to a wave of foreclosures like the last time. The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash Another difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been lower since the crash, largely because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help paint the picture of how different things are this time: Not to mention, homeowners today have options they just didn’t have in the housing crisis when so many people owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. Today, many homeowners are equity rich. That equity comes, in large part, from the way home prices have appreciated over time. According to CoreLogic: “The total average equity per borrower has now reached almost $300,000, the highest in the data series.” Rick Sharga, Executive VP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM Data, explains the impact this has: “Very few of the properties entering the foreclosure process have reverted to the lender at the end of the foreclosure. . . . We believe that this may be an indication that borrowers are leveraging their equity and selling their homes rather than risking the loss of their equity in a foreclosure auction.”  This goes to show homeowners are in a completely different position this time. For those facing challenges today, many have the option to use their equity to sell their house and avoid the foreclosure process. Bottom Line If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your fears. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.

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What Happens to Housing when There’s a Recession? Since the 2008 housing bubble burst, the word recession strikes a stronger emotional chord than it ever did before. And while there’s some debate around whether we’re officially in a recession right now, the good news is experts say a recession today would likely be mild and the economy would rebound quickly. As the 2022 CEO Outlook from KPMG says: “Global CEOs see a ‘mild and short’ recession, yet optimistic about global economy over 3-year horizon . . .  More than 8 out of 10 anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, with more than half expecting it to be mild and short.” To add to that sentiment, housing is typically one of the first sectors to rebound during a slowdown. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains: “Housing is traditionally one of the first sectors to slow as the economy shifts but is also one of the first to rebound.” Part of that rebound is tied to what has historically happened to mortgage rates during recessions. Here’s a look back at rates during previous economic slowdowns to help put your mind at ease. Mortgage Rates Typically Fall During Recessions Historical data helps paint the picture of how a recession could impact the cost of financing a home. Looking at recessions in this country going all the way back to 1980, the graph below shows each time the economy slowed down mortgage rates decreased. Fortune explains mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown: “Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.” While history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from and find comfort in the trends of what’s happened in the past. If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you can make the best decision by working with a trusted real estate professional. That way you have expert advice on what a recession could mean for the housing market. Bottom Line History shows you don’t need to fear the word recession when it comes to the housing market. If you have questions about what’s happening today, let’s connect so you have expert advice and insights you can trust.

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Over the past two years, the substantial imbalance of low housing supply and high buyer demand pushed home sales and buyer competition to new heights. But this year, things are shifting as supply and demand reach an inflection point.The graph below helps tell the story of just how different things are today.This year, buyer demand has eased as higher mortgage rates and mounting economic uncertainty moderated the market. This slowdown in demand is clear when you look at the red bar on the graph. It uses the latest data from ShowingTime to illustrate how showings (an indicator of buyer demand) have softened by just over 12% compared to the same time last year.Now for a look at how housing supply has changed, turn to the green bar. It uses data from realtor.com to show active listings are up nearly 27% compared to last year. That’s because the moderation of demand allowed housing inventory to increase in 2022.What Does This Inflection Point Mean for Buyers? If you’re thinking of buying a home, you’ll have less competition and more options than you would have had last year. Enjoy having more homes to choose from in your home search and lean on a trusted real estate professional to understand how the increase in supply has also increased your negotiation power. That professional can talk you through the opportunities and challenges buyers face in today’s shifting market. You may be surprised to find they’re different than they were a year ago.What Does This Inflection Point Mean for Sellers?If you’re looking to sell your house, know that inventory is still low overall. That means, if you work with an agent to price your house based on current market value, it will still sell despite the inventory gains and moderating buyer demand this year. That’s because there are still buyers out there who want to move, and your house may be exactly what they’re looking for.Bottom LineIf you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, the best place to turn to for information on today’s supply and demand is a trusted real estate professional. Let’s connect so you know what’s happening in our local market and what that means for you.

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What Experts Say Will Happen with Home Prices Next Year Experts are starting to make their 2023 home price forecasts. As they do, most agree homes will continue to gain value, just at a slower pace. Over the past couple of years, home prices have risen at an unsustainable rate, leaving many to wonder how long it would last. If you’re asking yourself: what’s ahead for the price of my home, know that experts are now answering this question, and its welcome news for homeowners who may have been led by the media to believe their home would lose value. Historically, home prices have appreciated at a rate near 4%. For 2023, the average of six major forecasters noted below is 2.5%. While one, Zelman & Associates, is calling for depreciation, the other five are calling for appreciation. The graph below outlines each expert forecast to show where they project home prices are going in the coming year. To understand why experts are calling for appreciation next year, look to the economics of supply and demand. Dave Ramsey, Financial Expert, says this: “The root issue of what drives house prices almost always is supply and demand . . .”    Two things are driving home prices upward. First, the undersupply of homes on the market is an issue we continue to face in this country. We still don’t have enough homes on the market for the number of people that want to buy them. To further that point, we’re still in a sellers’ market nationally, and in that scenario, home prices tend to appreciate. Second, millennials are moving through their peak homebuying years. Since they’re the largest demographic behind the baby boomers, demand isn’t going away any time soon. Bottom Line Experts are calling for home prices to appreciate next year, although at a slower pace than the previous three years. The reason for this is simple. The dynamics of supply and demand are playing out in real estate and will continue for many years to come.

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Why Today’s Housing Inventory Proves the Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash Whether or not you owned a home in 2008, you likely remember the housing crash that took place back then. And news about an economic slowdown happening today may bring all those concerns back to the surface. While those feelings are understandable, data can help reassure you the situation today is nothing like it was in 2008. One of the key reasons why the market won’t crash this time is the current undersupply of inventory. Housing supply comes from three key places: Current homeowners putting their homes up for sale Newly built homes coming onto the market Distressed properties (short sales or foreclosures) For the market to crash, you’d have to make a case for an oversupply of inventory headed to the market, and the numbers just don’t support that. So, here’s a deeper look at where inventory is coming from today to help prove why the housing market isn’t headed for a crash. Current Homeowners Putting Their Homes Up for Sale Even though housing supply is increasing this year, there’s still a limited number of existing homes available. The graph below helps illustrate this point. Based on the latest weekly data, inventory is up 27.8% compared to the same week last year (shown in blue). But compared to the same week in 2019 (shown in the larger red bar), it’s still down by 42.6%. So, what does this mean? Inventory is still historically low. There simply aren’t enough homes on the market to cause prices to crash. There would need to be a flood of people getting ready to sell their houses in order to tip the scales toward a buyers’ market. And that level of activity simply isn’t there. Newly Built Homes Coming onto the Market There’s also a lot of talk about what’s happening with newly built homes today, and that may make you wonder if we’re overbuilding. But home builders are actually slowing down their production right now. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, notes: “It has become a very competitive market for builders where they are trying to offload any standing inventory.” To avoid repeating the overbuilding that happened leading up to the housing crisis, builders are reacting to higher mortgage rates and softening buyer demand by slowing down their work. It’s a sign they’re being intentional about not overbuilding homes like they did during the bubble. And according to the latest data from the U.S. Census, at today’s current pace, we’re headed to build a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 1.4 million homes this year. While this will add more inventory to the market, it’s not on pace to create an oversupply because builders today are more cautious than the last time when they built more homes than the market could absorb. Distressed Properties (Short Sales or Foreclosures) The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. Back in the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to secure a home loan they couldn’t truly afford. Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions on properties with foreclosure filings to help paint the picture of how things have changed since the crash: This graph shows how in the time around the housing crash there were over one million foreclosure filings per year. As lending standards tightened since then, the activity started to decline. And in 2020 and 2021, the forbearance program was a further aid to help prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw back around 2008. That program was a game changer, giving homeowners options for things like loan deferrals and modifications they didn’t have before. And data on the success of that program shows four out of every five homeowners coming out of forbearance are either paid in full or have worked out a repayment plan to avoid foreclosure. These are a few of the biggest reasons there won’t be a wave of foreclosures coming to the market. Bottom Line Although housing supply is growing this year, the market certainly isn’t anywhere near the inventory levels that would cause prices to drop significantly. That’s why inventory tells us the housing market won’t crash.

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What Would a Recession Mean for the Housing Market? According to a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal, the percentage of economists who believe we’ll see a recession in the next 12 months is growing. When surveyed in July 2021, only 12% of economists consulted thought there’d be a recession by now. But this July, when polled, 49% believe we will see a recession in the coming 12 months. And as more recession talk fills the air, one concern many people have is: should I delay my homeownership plans if there’s a recession? Here’s a look at historical data to show what happened in real estate during previous recessions to help prove why you shouldn’t be afraid of what a recession would mean for the housing market today. A Recession Doesn’t Mean Falling Home Prices To show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, it helps to turn to historical data. As the graph below illustrates, looking at the recessions going all the way back to 1980, home prices appreciated in four of the last six recessions. So, historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will fall. Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 (the larger of the two red bars in the graph above) and think another recession would repeat what happened then. But this housing market isn’t about to crash. The fundamentals are very different today than they were in 2008. So, don’t assume we’re heading down the same path. A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates Research also helps paint the picture of how a recession could impact the cost of financing a home. As the chart below shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased. Fortune explains that mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown: “Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.” And while history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from and find comfort in the historical data. Bottom Line There’s no doubt everyone remembers what happened in the housing market in 2008. But you don’t need to fear the word recession if you’re planning to buy or sell a home. According to historical data, in most recessions, home price gains have stayed strong, and mortgage rates have declined. If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, let’s connect so you have expert advice on what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for your homeownership goals.

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  REAL [estate] LIFE  with the Fowlers Do you ever find yourself spending so much time trying to decide where to eat out every week? It's a struggle for us too! We love our local restaurants, but we can never seem to remember the best ones or match them to what we're craving. Does this sound familiar to you and your spouse? I'm sure it does! Luckily, we've found a solution that works for us, and we think it could work for you too! When we're trying to decide on a place to eat, we simply pull up our YELP Collection. Together, we scroll through our favorites, and every time we say, "Oh yeah, forgot about that place. Let's go there." In a matter of minutes, we have a place selected. No more 30-minute conversations trying to decide on a location! If you're interested in trying this out for yourself, we've created a list of our top 30 favorite restaurants on YELP. Follow our recommendations by clicking the link and selecting "follow." We update the list occasionally with new favorites, so you'll always have some great options at your fingertips. Give it a try and see how much time and energy you'll save! FOLLOW OUR FAVORITE PLACES HERE        

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  The Fowler's Take The St Patrick's Day parade is one of the biggest parades in Baton Rouge and a family favorite of ours.  It was our first experience attending the parade at City Park, one of my favorite locations now.  Our son could play soccer with tons of kids an hour before the parade and then have a front-row seat to the floats.  I've experienced almost every street for the St. Patrick's Day parade in Baton Rouge, and it's a new experience each time.   Thanks to Danielle and Andrew for having us at their spot!         

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"Life on Pointe" differs from any other neighborhood in Baton Rouge. They have achieved a feeling of tranquility and warm community by building a beautiful setting. According to the developer, "Many have said that Pointe-Marie has captured the nostalgia of times we all long to be a part of while encompassing modern luxury amenities."      

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The Fowler's Take Our first post-Covid event was a huge success!  Great food, drinks, and atmosphere at mestizos provided for a great foundation. We connected with old clients, friends, and business colleagues we hadn't seen in months and had ample time to connect and catch up.  We're so excited that the chamber will be hosting these semi-regularly. To learn more about when you can attend the next happy hour. Make sure you check out the information below.  According to BRAC's website👇🏽 "To accelerate economic opportunity in the Baton Rouge Area for everyone. The Baton Rouge Area Chamber is an aggressively ambitious regional economic development organization with a bias for action. BRAC seeks to push Baton Rouge beyond the status quo, unleash its potential, and support a vibrant business community that believes the finish line does not exist.   BRAC represents the nine-parish Capital Region of Ascension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, West Baton Rouge, and West Feliciana Parishes, working with local and state entities to advance economic development for everyone.   BRAC tackles lofty goals in five-year regional strategic plans. 2022 ushered in the BRING IT! Baton Rouge's strategy builds on the solid foundation of past plans and sets its sights on accelerating progress. Read more about BRING IT! Baton Rouge here. BRAC's strategic goals are to: Bolster our talent pipeline Diversify our industry base and job opportunities Create a more inclusive economy Enhance our region's livability.   Check out Mestizo's menu by clicking their logo: 

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The Fowler's Take Candidate for State Representative, District 68 Laurie has been a great friend, and she is someone you want to support in her candidacy for State Representative, District 68 because she is decisive, deliberate, and determined. She listens to the people she represents and her convictions and beliefs are deeply rooted to make meaningful changes in our state.    According to Laurie's website👇🏽 "Laurie White Adams fell in love with Baton Rouge when she walked onto LSU’s campus in 1988. Laurie quickly stepped into leadership roles serving as Vice-President and President of the Student Government Association. During her tenure as President, Laurie approached a Louisiana state senator and asked him to sponsor a “License to Learn” scholarship program. The legislation passed, and at that moment, Laurie knew she wanted to be part of more solutions for our state. Today, thousands of university license plates are on cars throughout our state, a and hundreds of thousands of dollars have been raised for college scholarships through this program. After gaining valuable experience at the LSU Alumni Association, and Board of Regents, and as a legislative assistant in the State Senate, Laurie opened and operated a small business. After selling the company, she spent several years as a full-time mother investing in her family and the lives of others through the Junior League and as Director of Vacation Bible School at her church. In 2004, she joined the staff of St. Luke’s Episcopal Day School as Director of Development. Four years later, she was tapped to serve as the Director of Advancement and remained in that position until she joined the Mary Bird Perkins Development team. She most recently served as Director of Advancement and Enrollment Management at Parkview Baptist School in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. She has extensive experience in the creation and maturation of advancement and marketing programs in private schools. She is a presenter at regional and national conferences on the topics of development operations, private school marketing, and governance. Laurie is a member of First Presbyterian Church, where she has served as a deacon, small group leader, Sunday School teacher, and on the worship team. She is currently the Vice President of Education for the Association of Fundraising Professionals (AFP) and served as the AFP National Philanthropy Day Chairman in 2018. Her board service includes the Arden O. French Leadership Academy, Baton Rouge High School Foundation, and Elan Cotillion. She is a member of Tri Delta Sorority and is active with the Baton Rouge Alumnae Chapter. Her husband, Johnny, Assistant Commissioner for the Louisiana Department of Conservation, and their children, Will and Laura Beth, both attended LSU and reside in Baton Rouge."

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According to Trinity’s website A foundation for academic excellence in a Christian environment. Trinity Episcopal Day School provides the foundation for academic excellence in a Christian environment, nurturing the whole child. Established in 1948 as a ministry of Trinity Episcopal Church, the Day School is located less than a mile from the LSU campus. Our PreK3 through 5th-grade neighborhood school has earned the prestigious SAES Accreditation because of its dedication to exceptional education, characterized by personalized instruction, creative teaching techniques, and small class sizes. Come and see our school in action!  

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The Fowler’s Take We had fun at the Manners of the Heart 20th anniversary celebration the other night.  Seeing all the great work and the great people associated with such a wonderful cause filled our hearts.        According to the Manners Of The Heart website MISSION Our mission is to reawaken respect in our society for the next generation. VISION We envision a world where the attitude behind the action reflects respect. CORE VALUES We strive to be people of INTEGRITY. We treat others with RESPECT. We CARE for each other and those we serve. We seek CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT in all that we do. We aim for EXCELLENCE.  

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The Fowler's Take Today, Murphy Paul, Chief of Baton Rouge police, gave an update on crime in Baton Rouge and concluded that significant crimes in Baton Rouge had seen an overall reduction since last year. While there’s lots of work to continue to make our city a safe place to live for all, Baton Rouge is one of the few cities in the country trending toward reduced significant crimes. The Chief concluded with a personal story of a childhood friend from the same background and area as the chief. His friend ended up in Angola, where Chief Murphy experienced a stellar career at the Louisiana State Police and became Police Chief. He listed three essential factors that made all the difference in his life.  #1. Education There was a standard at home. There wasn’t an option to not get an education.  #2. Three “Cs"  Control, consequences, and Choices - family taught him how to control his emotions. There was a Fear of disappointing his mother, family, and most importantly himself.  #3. Three “Fs” Faith and Family First - Kids don’t have a fear of God “where’s the church?” Families are still experiencing generational PDSD from when our society viewed drugs as a crime and not as a disease. We must do something different to inspire families to be involved with their kid's education and life lessons. With their kids education and teaching them life skills to create a meaningful life   *Baton Rouge Crime Report 2023 

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